May 05, 2025

Democractic Campaign Planning for the 2026 Midterms

by Joe Fuld (He/Him)

donkey representing the democratic party planning for the 2026 midterms

What Can Democratic Campaigns Do NOW to Plan for the 2026 Midterms?

As you plan for the 2026 midterm elections with everything going on in the country, it may seem like things are out of your control. However, elections have consequences, and so does the work you do leading up to them. We are political realists, and a lot can happen between now and Election Day 2026. In this post, we will detail the historical trends of midterms, talk about contributing factors, and go through what Democrats and progressives can do now to make a difference in election outcomes this year.

What is the midterm elections trend? The midterm elections trend is that the party in power loses on average 30 seats or more in the House following the midterm elections. The exceptions to this trend are rare. It’s also usually exacerbated in times of a difficult economy or a president with a low approval rating. For the 2026 midterm elections, Trump’s approval rating (and Elon’s) will matter, and so will the approval rating of each political party and Congress itself. 

Why does the party in power usually lose in the midterms? There are a lot of theories around why there are losses in midterm elections. I usually attribute it to buyer’s remorse. Often, voters who were on the fence or voted for the party currently in power in the most recent election are either upset about the outcome or rethinking how the party is doing and are dissatisfied with the results they’re immediately seeing. 

Different electorate in midterms for both primaries and general elections. There is a different electorate in midterms than in general elections. With as much as a 20 percent difference between who turns out in primaries, the difference is even greater.

If we win the House, will we win the Senate? The Democratic party has great candidates in U.S. Senate races for 2026, but they are in challenging states, such as North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Georgia, and Florida. This year, as always, the Senate seats we are defending or trying to get are challenging. Turnout in House races can and will likely be a contributing factor to losing or gaining U.S. Senate seats.

What about state and local races? This year, we have seen predictions of state legislative gains, but it’s too early to bank on this. State legislative races have become more nationalized, but local concerns still matter.

What are the contributing factors to midterm elections? There is not just one thing that causes a loss in midterms. Factors include buyer’s remorse, right track/wrong track, presidential approval, bad House maps, the Senate map, the Supreme Court, changes in voting rules, the economy, inflation, demographic trends, and other elections on the ballot. Bottom line, many factors contribute to the midterms, and there will be regional and local differences depending on these factors.

  • Low presidential approval: There has been a correlation in past midterm elections with presidential approval and losses—basically, the lower the approval rating, the worse the losses.

  • Low party approval: The rating of the party in power has also correlated with past midterm election losses.

  • House maps: Maps for Democrats have gotten worse, not better. Most state legislators are in Republican control, and the maps have become harder for us to win.

  • Senate makeup: Republicans barely control the Senate, but we have had division in our own party. As we said earlier, we have a ton of close races across the board.

  • DOGE: The cutting of federal jobs and closing of government agencies will be a big issue in 2026.

  • Healthcare: With all the changes to healthcare, such as cuts to Medicaid and Medicare, many folks will see healthcare access as a big issue. 

  • Veterans: The cuts to the VA could be a big wake-up call to veterans, but this is also something to watch.

  • Seniors: Social Security Administration and potential Medicare cuts could be a game changer in 2026, but they have not taken hold yet. 

  • Immigration: Trump’s immigration policies will likely drive turnout both for and against Republicans, but how much this benefits one party over the other remains to be seen.

  • Abortion: This is still a driving issue for Democrats, but how that will affect the 2026 midterms is still unclear.

  • The Supreme Court: The leaking of the opinion on Roe v Wade and the extreme likelihood that the Court would overturn Roe helped some Democrats in specific districts in 2022. But it is not clear what the Court’s actions and opinions will mean in 2026.

  • Change in voting rules: Post-2020 elections, Republican-controlled state legislatures and governors have made it harder to vote. State laws passed have included making absentee voting harder, decreasing early-vote locations, and even making it illegal to give water to people waiting in line. For 2026, we have seen executive orders to change voter laws—how they will hold up in court remains to be seen. 

  • The economy and inflation: A volatile stock market, tariffs, bird flu, and other fiscal issues may cause real problems for the incumbent party. Historically, we have seen more losses in races of the opposite party when there is large-scale inflation.

  • Demographic trends: We have continued to lose voters to Republicans, specifically non-college white voters, and compounded with a Trump economic bump, this will likely hurt Democrats in the midterm elections. But the biggest mistake you can make is to cut out entire groups of people to communicate with: Keep organizing, and have a bigger, not smaller, audience to start with.

  • Other races and issues on the ballot: Depending on what is on the ballot in your state or locality, turnout may differ. Make sure you are looking at the full ballot when you are thinking about strategy for turnout in your campaign.

Is a midterm win guaranteed for the Dems? Not so fast. Our view of 2026 is that it is a jump ball at best for Democrats. We can guess that if you are now reading this blog post, you will conclude that this election will be extremely hard and expensive. But it doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t act. As we have said before, races in midterms are extremely close, so turnout and engagement will matter a great deal. This means building and planning now. Below are some tips:

  • Organize now: Most folks do not see the things that are happening under the surface. The average senior, veteran, etc., does not necessarily see what’s happening for the issues they care about on a daily basis, and how those actions will affect them. Go out and meet people and talk to folks.

  • Increase door-to-door outreach: Begin door-to-door canvassing now, especially in races where it is hard to do.

  • Increase your universe: Do not assume that people will automatically be with you, turn out, and vote for you. Also, do not assume that the voters who voted against you are entirely clear. Use research to help you understand universes, and don’t be stingy.

    • Don’t under-target or reduce your universe: Under-targeting and decreasing communication a factors into voter drop-off and could be a factor in midterm elections. You need to make sure that you are not cutting out audiences who need to hear your message, both from your base and persuasion audiences. Deciding that folks you consider Democratic-base voters don’t need communications could be a costly mistake.

  • Raise money: Inflation, tariffs, and larger audiences will result in expensive races, so make sure you are raising money accordingly. We have seen spending on elections increase between 10 and 20 percent per cycle; we should assume higher spending due to competitive races and cost increases.

  • Engage: Engage with your audience as early as possible. Use all possible means of communication strategically. It has become harder and harder to reach people, and it will be even harder to reach people through late communication. You need to start earlier and continue to communicate in multiple ways.

  • Create a contrast: You need to make sure that your contrast is as clear as possible. This is not necessarily a negative campaign, but there are differences between candidates. No matter the election, a real contrast is key.

  • Have a clear message: Do not assume that voters have an understanding or a reason for why they should turn out. You need to make sure your message is clear. This is a fundamental problem in campaigns in general. Remember, an issue is not a message. Do not get these things mixed up.

Additional Resources: 

Midterm losses

 

Midterms and presidential approval

The economy, Inflation, and midterms

 

State legislative losses

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