In any campaign, access to a strong campaign voter file and fresh political data matters. For good reason: modern political campaigns have increasingly become data-driven. Political data is a tool, not a strategy, and it comes with many pitfalls and ways to go wrong. So it’s important to always have a human on the other end of that data asking questions and using reason instead of taking it at face value.
In this post, we dig into a top tip on how to successfully use a campaign voter file with up-to-date political data. We also explore the mistakes we have seen folks make with campaign data and how to stay away from them.
We have lots of posts on political and advocacy data since we are big data and targeting nerds. So, if your data issue is not candidate campaign-related, try one of these posts:
Okay, still here? Fantastic, let us run you through our thoughts on campaign voter files and political data for Democratic political campaigns.
Good campaign data makes all the difference in building an effective Democratic direct mail program. Understanding your voter file access options is critical to laying the groundwork for a strategically targeted voter communications campaign. What’s more, knowing the ins and outs of voter file models and other data points will help you maximize your resources—after all, you can’t afford to target every voter in your electoral geography.
Voter file access considerations
Your Democratic direct mail is only as good as the data that gets it into mailboxes—be thoughtful about where you’re purchasing data and how you’re harnessing it once it’s in your hands.
Go beyond data from the local board of elections
One of the most important parts of using political data is to realize that data is only as good as the data that you build off of. Thus, we typically recommend against using data files that come straight from your local board of elections. Sure, these files may be cheap or free, but the data won’t be clean. They often include deceased people, people who have moved, and other issues. This data from the local board also typically doesn’t go through a national change of address (NCOA), which is the most basic way to check for inaccuracies. If you’re using the data from your state party, you’ll be covered. But if you’re running against an incumbent and the party has declined to give you voter file access, you should reach out to a data firm like those listed below so they can provide you with access to good-quality data. Using clean data will save you money in the long run. Say you’re sending out 7 waves of mail and each piece costs around $0.80 or so with postage. If you’re sending mail to someone who moved away, you’re wasting around $5.60 for every bad name on the list. This can add up fast if you’re mailing 20k households and 10% of your list has bad names.
Garbage in, garbage out
When using a voter file, it’s important to remember: garbage in, garbage out. Even if you get access to a good voter file from your state party or a voter file vendor, the data will never be perfect. If your campaign finds out that someone on the list has moved or passed away, make sure you enter that information back into the system. Updating this information helps your campaign by ensuring you’re not spending resources on a second pass with someone who’s moved, and it also helps other campaigns in the area. It’s also important that you don't put inaccurate data into the system. Sure, most of the time you’re inputting this data late at night when you’re half asleep, but the data that goes into your system will impact your campaign and potentially other campaigns as well, so make sure it's an accurate reflection of the information you collected on the doors or on the phone.
Why are so many of my 2s actually 3s?
One of the biggest problems in a field campaign is the ongoing issue of voter ID - the process of identifying your supporters. Depending on the volunteer, one person may count as a 2 while another counts as a 3. There are a few ways to get around this. One is to provide good volunteer training and instruct volunteers to list a voter as a 2 only if they express some level of support for your candidate. You can also stress that if they’re on the fence, it's better to count them as a 3 than a 2. Another way to avoid this (and the one we recommend) is to cut out the 2s and 4s entirely and run on a 1, 2, and 3 system. Either they have soft or hard support for your candidate, are genuinely undecided, or are against you.
Know what the data says, and what it doesn’t
With data models available in many voter files, some people tend to use a fancy model score every time they pull voter counts. Before you use a model, you should know exactly what the data is telling you. For instance, let’s say you’re running in 2027. You see that a turnout score from 2024 is listed in the file and are tempted to use it because you don’t see one for 2027. The type of voter who turned out for the 2024 presidential election is very different from the type of voter who will show up for the 2027 midterm election. Most data modeling companies provide clients with model notes that tell you how to use the model best and suggest score ranges for specific factors.
Know your drop-off voters
Let’s say you’re working in the early stages of a campaign and you’re working to pull your win number. You go to the Board of Elections website and see that roughly 10,000 people voted in your district in the most recent analogous election. You then go into your campaign voter file, pull a list of voters from that election, and it totals 13,000. You didn’t expect the numbers to be the same (people move away, pass away, etc.), but your campaign voter file is off by 30%. The reason is likely that you need to account for undervotes and overvotes. Undervotes, also known as drop-off voters, are people who came out to vote for the top of the ticket (president, governor, Senator, Congress, etc.) but didn't vote in races farther down the ballot.
Simply put, these people didn’t know enough about races farther down the ballot to choose. You may ask, how often could this really happen? The answer: quite a bit. Less common are over-votes, or people who marked multiple candidates in a race where they needed to make a single selection. Election rules vary, but often this single selection is invalidated, and the voter’s other selections still count. Fighting drop-off is an important strategy, especially in down-ballot races, and using your data to identify and communicate with likely drop-off voters like new registrants and presidential-only voters can be an important part of your targeting strategy.
Voter file access considerations
Your Democratic direct mail is only as good as the data that gets it into mailboxes—be thoughtful about where you’re purchasing data and how you’re harnessing it once it’s in your hands.
Most of the time, your state party will be the best vehicle for accessing the voter file (though depending on your state party’s rules, you may need to look elsewhere if you’re running in a local nonpartisan race). These files are reliable—they’re regularly updated and maintained. State party files usually have all the information you need for your Democratic direct mail program, including accurate addresses, demographic data, and phone numbers. Some of these files include predictive voter file models that can help you target people who are likely to turn out in your election or support the causes you champion. One thing to keep in mind: If you’re challenging an incumbent and your state party has declined to give you voter file access, you may need to reach out directly to one of the data platforms/firms we list below.
We typically advise against using voter files that come straight from your state or county board of elections. These files are cheap (sometimes even free), but they won’t be clean and may contain inaccurate information. These files often aren't entered through the National Change of Address (NCOA) system, meaning you’ll be left with data that includes folks who have moved out of state/district or even died. While your mailshop/printer can usually help clean up your file, starting with a messy dataset makes it difficult to budget accurately and target strategically for mail.
Data hygiene matters
For your Democratic direct mail, field, and digital programs, having an organized list with reliable data points makes all the difference in engaging the right people and tracking their interactions with your campaign. If you’re mailing to 20,000 households and 10 percent of your records (2,000) contain inaccurate information, costs can add up. Resources are precious, and you don’t want to waste dollars communicating with the wrong folks (or lose your election because you failed to reach the right people).
Data Platforms, Tools, and Firms to Consider
If you can’t access the voter file through your state party, below are some platforms and tools you can pursue to get the data you need to win your campaign.
- TargetSmart is a private progressive data firm that specializes in providing high-quality data and integration technologies to campaigns and organizations. TargetSmart uses voter registration and turnout data, consumer marketing information, and advanced modeling techniques to help you build custom-targeted Democratic direct mail campaigns and other programs. Their system is intuitive and easy to use.
- Catalist is a private progressive firm that provides data and other data-related services to campaigns and organizations, helping them identify and communicate with the people they need to persuade and mobilize. Catalist contains data on the entire U.S. adult population (over 240 million voting-age individuals), helping you target registered voters as well as unregistered folks.
- L2 is a private, nonpartisan company that integrates with a wide range of political platforms and tools. L2 has a self-service national VoterMapping tool that lets you drill down to the household level (with houses color-coded by household members' party affiliation) to visualize data before you purchase it. Like TargetSmart and Catalist, L2 also offers a concierge service, so you can get targeting advice from analytics professionals.
- NGPVAN is a hub for multiple voter software products, including Vote Builder, SmartVAN, NGPVAN, LAN, etc. Check out their offerings.
- SmartVAN is a product of NGP VAN and TargetSmart that combines updated, robust voter file data with VAN field campaign software (used by Obama and virtually every other Democratic candidate, as well as most national progressive political organizations and unions). The data and software are available separately, so make sure you’re buying a package that fits your needs.
- Political Data Incorporated is a data company that started in California and expanded beyond; they offer strong files and some cool tech tools to go with them.
- NationBuilder is a nonpartisan firm whose mission is to connect leaders with affordable, high-quality databases and communications tools. Businesses, nonprofits, and politicians use NationBuilder to organize their communities and build more meaningful relationships with customers, supporters, and constituents.
Voter file targeting considerations
When weighing your voter file access options, investigate the modeled data included in your package. Voter file models are built by analytics professionals who understand statistics; they use demographic, behavioral, commercial, and other data points to create models that score the probability that an individual in the voter file will act in a certain way or support/oppose a specific issue.
Some models that may be particularly helpful for your Democratic direct mail program include:
- Vote propensity: What’s the probability that an individual will vote in a given election?
- Partisanship: What’s the probability that an individual identifies as a Democrat?
- Ideology: What’s the probability that an individual identifies as liberal? (Note: This model is particularly helpful for organizations running C3 campaigns that can’t use party identification in their targeting parameters.)
- Issue models: If you’re a progressive organization, you may want to see if you can access models that predict support for addressing climate change, expanding access to affordable health care, and other issues.
- Ballot measure models: If you have ballots you are on the same ballot as or share an issue stance on, looking at previous or current ballot measure models can help with your targeting.
Understanding the voter models you use
While voter file models can help take your Democratic direct mail targeting to the next level, always remember that they’re predictive, not deterministic. Don’t rely too heavily on any model or overpay for models you don’t need. We often find that marrying vote history (non-modeled, concrete data) with partisanship or ideology scores can do the job best and can check score-based turnout models.
Do you have more questions about using a voter file and using the data you acquire to run an effective Democratic direct mail, field, or digital advertising campaign? Give our team a call.